Ross A. Baker reviewed Soccernomics by Simon Kuper
I wanted Moneyball II, but not as much as the authors
3 stars
I hoped this would be a Moneyball for soccer. It even had a Billy Beane quote on the cover. I did not expect the book to insistently compare itself to Moneyball. There explicit and tiresome references in almost every chapter.
I haven't picked a European side, preferring the international game. The book starts well with insights into the transfer system that I never understood, though they scarcely affect my fandom. I already grasped the game theory of penalty kicks, but that chapter is another highlight.
The book sputters as it pivots to the international game. It quantifies overachievers and underachievers per capita and income. One problem is that it uses winning percentage as the dependent variable, with little attention paid to opponent quality other than to abruptly restrict focus to Europe. A second problem is that the models appear to be linear. Extreme value theory says the best …
I hoped this would be a Moneyball for soccer. It even had a Billy Beane quote on the cover. I did not expect the book to insistently compare itself to Moneyball. There explicit and tiresome references in almost every chapter.
I haven't picked a European side, preferring the international game. The book starts well with insights into the transfer system that I never understood, though they scarcely affect my fandom. I already grasped the game theory of penalty kicks, but that chapter is another highlight.
The book sputters as it pivots to the international game. It quantifies overachievers and underachievers per capita and income. One problem is that it uses winning percentage as the dependent variable, with little attention paid to opponent quality other than to abruptly restrict focus to Europe. A second problem is that the models appear to be linear. Extreme value theory says the best player(s) in a nation of a billion are not a thousand times better than the best in a nation of a million. I craved more math.
I'm also left bemused by arguments that the EPL has similar parity to the NFL. The spread within a season may be similar, but disaster at Manchester United looks nothing like some Patriots teams before and after Brady, and I've seen most teams in at least one Super Bowl.
The authors do not shy away from politics. They make a surprisingly compelling case for the influence of the oligarchs and oil sheikhs without sympathizing with the characters.
Not as revolutionary as Moneyball, but it did change some things I thought about soccer. Let's credit it with a draw.