False Alarm

I was initially excited about this book providing a new perspective on how to make the world a better place. I saw some negative reviews but assumed they were written by the same type of idealistic environmentalist types that Lomborg is trying to argue against, and so didn't pay much attention to them.

After reading the book, I tried to learn more about the claims made in the book, and it started to feel more and more like the facts had been misrepresented in order to make Lomborg's argument more compelling. For a summary of some of the issues, you can see www.lomborg-errors.dk/ or the complaints to the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty.

This was very disappointing to me. I think it is possible there is still a kernel of truth to Lomborg's argument and it is unfortunate if it is lost due to making arguments in bad faith with hidden agendas. If there is some truth to this argument that we are attempting to solve the climate problem in the wrong way, then I hope that someone can do this work in a more intellectually honest way, adapting the argument to take into account criticism/suggestions by other experts. Hopefully Lomborg's style of argument hasn't done too much to destroy the credibility of any similar research.

The author has already been criticized in the past for his view on climate change which he published in The Skeptical Environmentalist. This book claims to be heavily sourced and represent the actual scientific consensus, which the author claims is not accurately represented by the media. The main claim of the book is that people will adapt to climate change and that it will be cheaper than reducing carbon emissions. However, its sources seems to be cherry-picked, and the general conclusion seems to be inconsistent with the IPCC reports from 2014, which I trust to represent the scientific consensus much more than some non peer-reviewed book. The book uses as example studies making the hypotheses of no adaption being used as face-value by the media, but it is not representative of all of the media's dealings with climate change. For example most risk estimations in the IPCC reports show both the risk and the potential for adaptation. Some of the claims regarding coastal flooding and its mortality are also contradicted by the WHO. Victims of floods have increased in the recent years. The book fails to address the migrations that will arise due to climate change and many other factors where adaptation will be much tougher than just buying AC, for example the IPCC mentions droughts, and lower food productivity.