Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching …
Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'
5 stars
The best book on prediction and forecasting I have read, for two reasons:
1. It outlines a fairly concrete method that a practitioner can follow
2. It is actually based on a large-scale empirical study, not just experience and anecdote
Although a much heavier read, it is worth reading Tetlock's previous book "Expert Political Judgment" (in which he, at least to the casual reader, seems to utterly trash humanity's forecasting abilities with pitiless empiricism) conjunction with this one, which has a far more optimistic and practical tone.