Tilde Lowengrimm reviewed Danger Zone by Hal Brands
China's window of opportunity might be closing — and that's dangerous for everyone.
Through comparison with recent major conflicts & wars since industrialization, the authors make the case that the danger posed by China isn't one of a rising power, but a stagnating or declining one. China faces numerous geopolitical, economic, & demographic challenges over the coming decades. These might mean that the window for China's ascendancy is closing, prompting the CCP to take riskier moves as desperate gambles to achieve long lauded goals like the reintegration of Taiwan's democratic Republic of China. All of this threatens instability, including escalating espionage, mercantilism & other economic weaponization, and of course military buildups leading to armed conflict between nuclear-armed great powers. To mitigate these global hazards, the authors lay out a raft of proposals & strategies aimed at US policymakers. They hope that some of these interventions might manage this global risk and create opportunities for non-destructive mutual success, taking the end of the Cold …
Through comparison with recent major conflicts & wars since industrialization, the authors make the case that the danger posed by China isn't one of a rising power, but a stagnating or declining one. China faces numerous geopolitical, economic, & demographic challenges over the coming decades. These might mean that the window for China's ascendancy is closing, prompting the CCP to take riskier moves as desperate gambles to achieve long lauded goals like the reintegration of Taiwan's democratic Republic of China. All of this threatens instability, including escalating espionage, mercantilism & other economic weaponization, and of course military buildups leading to armed conflict between nuclear-armed great powers. To mitigate these global hazards, the authors lay out a raft of proposals & strategies aimed at US policymakers. They hope that some of these interventions might manage this global risk and create opportunities for non-destructive mutual success, taking the end of the Cold War as their model.
I find the description of the problem credible, but I am not convinced of the the US' capability to achieve the hoped-for stability & peace.