Probably Overthinking It

How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions

Hardcover, 256 pages

English language

Published July 17, 2023 by University of Chicago Press.

ISBN:
978-0-226-82258-7
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5 stars (1 review)

Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor's office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.

Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls--like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson's paradox--and shines a light …

1 edition

Understanding Data

5 stars

We are better off when our decisions are guided by evidence and reason but working with data can be tricky. Data can behave in ways that violate our intuition and expectations. It's easy to be fooled.

Downey's ability to explain complex concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way is truly remarkable. Downey draws on a wide range of case studies to illustrate the principles of statistical thinking encouraging readers to question assumptions and be wary of misleading statistics. He debunks common statistical fallacies and teaches readers how to avoid falling into traps that can lead to misinterpretations and bad decisions.

All of the code the author used to do the analysis and generate the figures is now available online (allendowney.github.io/ProbablyOverthinkingIt/intro.html), which is just perfect.