Will it be as bad as all that?
4 stars
The world post WW2 has been the most prosperous and peaceful time in human history.
Largely because the US has been in a cold war with the USSR, rather than fighting directly with the USSR the US brought peace and economic prosperity to the world with the condition that the world sides with the US. Any country that prevented free trade from occurring was taken out by the US.
This time is coming to an end. The US no longer has a global competitor so is withdrawing back into isolation. The US also has the perfect geography - it is self sufficient in terms of food and energy and has no threats to it's borders. Without the US acting as a global policeman the world is going to revert to it's old ways of competition rather than cooperation. Global trade and technological progress is going to collapse.
There is also …
The world post WW2 has been the most prosperous and peaceful time in human history.
Largely because the US has been in a cold war with the USSR, rather than fighting directly with the USSR the US brought peace and economic prosperity to the world with the condition that the world sides with the US. Any country that prevented free trade from occurring was taken out by the US.
This time is coming to an end. The US no longer has a global competitor so is withdrawing back into isolation. The US also has the perfect geography - it is self sufficient in terms of food and energy and has no threats to it's borders. Without the US acting as a global policeman the world is going to revert to it's old ways of competition rather than cooperation. Global trade and technological progress is going to collapse.
There is also the issue of demographic collapse. The world is getting older. Less young people mean less people are going to be born. This means the world population is shrinking. In order to have economic growth you have to have a growing population in order to consume more.
Peter frames all of this as a really bad thing. I can't help feeling that although there are definite challenges ahead it is probably the best way to save humanity. The endless ravaging of unbounded capitalism is not sustainable and if it isn't checked will end up destroying us all. So whilst we may have challenges for the next few decades, perhaps without the global policeman encouraging everyone that the only solution is more consumption we may return to an equilibrium that is ultimately more sustainable.
Definitely an interesting book and it will be interesting to keep an eye on geopolitics with this all in mind to see how it all pans out. We do live in interesting times!
