The Book of Why : The New Science of Cause and Effect

English language

Published Jan. 1, 2018

ISBN:
978-0-465-09760-9
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(10 reviews)

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence

"Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human …

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This book is a popularized text regarding Pearl's work on causal theory and do calculus. It is remarkable. The book tells the tale of how causal theory has been misunderstood for long in the science of statistics, mostly by the Anglo-Saxon null-hypothesis 'gang' of Fisher, Pearson and Galton; putting in doubt a lot of 20th century social research. The book also joyfully reveals how the commonly regarded 'simple' and 'explainable' linear model has been misapplied most of the times, putting my own doubts at rest.

Accounting started in around 5000 BC in Mesopotamia. It was not until the nineties that Edward Jaynes finalized the concept of Bayesian probability. Around this time Pearl also was making his work known. Statistics in the social sciences is just getting started.

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