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Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015, Crown)

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching …

Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'

Just start reading past the epiloge. Much too long book about forecasting. It contains interesting, although familiar, psychological features and mechanisms that are important ingredients to the art of forecasting, but the writer fails to connect those dots. Perhaps the need to draw attention to the know-who's of the writer was prioritized. Every detail of his research, that in itself are often hardly noteworthy, is larded with needless demonstrations. It also lacks some layered perspective, with some thoughts that could bind all findings, assumptions or consequences together or put them in perspective.
That being said, the book provide a good overview of good forecasting. A more efficient writer would have used 80% less paper. 81.2% to be exact.