Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

352 pages

Published Jan. 14, 2015 by Crown.

ISBN:
978-0-8041-3669-3
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4 stars (8 reviews)

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the …

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Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'

5 stars

The best book on prediction and forecasting I have read, for two reasons:
1. It outlines a fairly concrete method that a practitioner can follow
2. It is actually based on a large-scale empirical study, not just experience and anecdote

Although a much heavier read, it is worth reading Tetlock's previous book "Expert Political Judgment" (in which he, at least to the casual reader, seems to utterly trash humanity's forecasting abilities with pitiless empiricism) conjunction with this one, which has a far more optimistic and practical tone.

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