Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the …
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'
5 stars
The book is about the research done by Philip Tetlock on a group of people he calls "superforecasters". These are people who have shown an ability to make accurate predictions about future events, often outperforming experts in the field.
The book goes into detail about the methods used by these superforecasters, and how anyone can learn to make more accurate predictions. It also discusses the importance of thinking probabilistically, and how to avoid common biases that lead to inaccurate predictions.
Overall, I found the book to be fascinating and well-written. I would recommend it to anyone interested in learning more about how to make better predictions.
Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'
2 stars
Just start reading past the epiloge. Much too long book about forecasting. It contains interesting, although familiar, psychological features and mechanisms that are important ingredients to the art of forecasting, but the writer fails to connect those dots. Perhaps the need to draw attention to the know-who's of the writer was prioritized. Every detail of his research, that in itself are often hardly noteworthy, is larded with needless demonstrations. It also lacks some layered perspective, with some thoughts that could bind all findings, assumptions or consequences together or put them in perspective. That being said, the book provide a good overview of good forecasting. A more efficient writer would have used 80% less paper. 81.2% to be exact.
Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'
5 stars
The best book on prediction and forecasting I have read, for two reasons: 1. It outlines a fairly concrete method that a practitioner can follow 2. It is actually based on a large-scale empirical study, not just experience and anecdote
Although a much heavier read, it is worth reading Tetlock's previous book "Expert Political Judgment" (in which he, at least to the casual reader, seems to utterly trash humanity's forecasting abilities with pitiless empiricism) conjunction with this one, which has a far more optimistic and practical tone.
