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Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Fooled by randomness (2005, Random House Trade Paperbacks) 4 stars

"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional …

Review of 'Fooled by randomness' on 'Goodreads'

4 stars

I can't really call something written in this style an essay, it's more like propaganda, a call-to-arms. It's closer to the tone of some samizdat than to scientific articles.

And yet, it's about very real things summarized mostly in examples and short stories that makes the book itself lengthy though it could be shorted into a few points.

1) People judge observations from too little amount of samples.
2) People mistake noise to signal because of the urge to explain events.
3) People mistake luck to skill based on superstitions alone.
4) People tend to arbitrarily adjust their scales to measure values.
5) People tend to trust inductive thinking if it fits expectations.

Taleb doesn't offer real solutions, and he doesn't even say anything new to readers educated atleast with a basic level of mathematics (eg. combinatorics) or philosophy (eg. positivism) and yet his book is very recommendable because it's like meditation on probability. While reading through the book, some of these ideas solidify on a reasonable level, it's also a subject that certainly needs paying attention to and worth reading or writing books about.

He mostly suggests ways to ignore people employing these fallacies too often, that certainly makes you feel better but could be doubtful if it helps anyone else. Despite the tone and strange closing thoughts it's an important read for everyone.