Hardcover, 672 pages
English language
Published Sept. 22, 2005 by Viking Adult.
A controversial scientific vision predicts a time in which humans and machines will merge and create a new form of non-biological intelligence, explaining how the occurrence will solve such issues as pollution, hunger, and aging.
Książka napisana dość technicznym żargonem, autor zna się na tym, co pisze.
Minęło już tyle czasu, że można sprawdzić pewne przewidywania Kurzweila - sprawdziły się w 50%.
Say exponential one more time, I dare you!
All futurists have a level of bullshit versus brilliance that is essential to predict where things will be any point in the future past next Tuesday. My problem with this book is the areas that I have a background in are mishandled which makes me question everything else. The two examples are his references to chaos and nonlinear dynamics where he makes claims that we will further be able to model and use systems with chaotic characteristics. Now maybe the systems he is discussing are more on par with the solar system where it is an unstable system but only when viewed over hundreds of millions of years (give or take an order of magnitude) or like the weather where the forecast past next week is still worth about as much as the paper it's printed.
The second issue is the handling of the Precautionary Principle. Kurzweil makes it out …
All futurists have a level of bullshit versus brilliance that is essential to predict where things will be any point in the future past next Tuesday. My problem with this book is the areas that I have a background in are mishandled which makes me question everything else. The two examples are his references to chaos and nonlinear dynamics where he makes claims that we will further be able to model and use systems with chaotic characteristics. Now maybe the systems he is discussing are more on par with the solar system where it is an unstable system but only when viewed over hundreds of millions of years (give or take an order of magnitude) or like the weather where the forecast past next week is still worth about as much as the paper it's printed.
The second issue is the handling of the Precautionary Principle. Kurzweil makes it out to be a bad, Luddite-ish idea (His belittlement of the Luddites is another issue but I am keeping this short) without ever defining what it is. See thalidomide or commercial uses of lead for why verifying something's safety before widespread implementation is a good idea. In short the bullshit level is high and the brilliance lacking.
I think it is important to consider how the things we do today will create the future we will inhabit. Kurzweil's book is very important. You might think that the things he talks about cannot possibly happen. But then think about Moore's Law, and what that has done in one small area. That is the premise Kurzweil starts with, and he makes an attractive case for it. Still, I am skeptical because the brain is so much more complex than he seems to realize. I doubt the things he predicts will happen on his schedule. Still, this is a book that is thought-provoking.
This book is highly derivative of Kurzweil's other futurist tomes, but the updates he's given his vision are worthwhile. Ray is the closet thing to a prophet I've ever encountered, and his books make me excited about the future of humans and technology.
