Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction

The Art and Science of Prediction

English language

Published Feb. 20, 2015 by Penguin Random House.

ISBN:
978-1-84794-714-7
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4 stars (16 reviews)

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

4 editions

Review of Superforecasting

5 stars

Superforecasting tells the story of psychologist Philip Tetlock’s project to systematically evaluate the predictions of experts. What exactly does an advisor mean when they tell the President that a military operation has a “good chance” of being successful? It wasn’t so long ago that no one thought to even ask such a question, and as Tetlock shows, the consequences couldn’t be more real. Tetlock’s work led to the development of the Good Judgement project, a forecasting competition designed to identify the characteristics of “superforecasters”, individuals with a quantifiable talent for predicting how world events will unfold. It’s a great book, and one I was partly inspired to read because of my involvement in a student forecasting tournament based on the Good Judgement project (where our students took first and second place overall!)

Review of 'Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'

No rating

I don’t know how to rate this book.
On the one hand so much of it is informative and Tetlock is clearly a strong believer in his approach – and I’m both swayed and intrigued by much of his evidence.
But on the other hand, it sways so often into the usual Business book “could’ve been a blog” territory, that my bias against those over-simplified, large print, double spaced, tree destroying tomes often overwhelmed the positives.
I do think it’s a good read, but I really wish books like this would be substantially less repetitive and over-confident.

Review of 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'

5 stars

You have to understand that this book is eminently and deeply rooted in the research program Tetlock pioneered and ran, the Good Judgement Project, and about the real people whom he found through the program to be great are forecasting geopolitical events in the three to six month range.

My own personal goal before reading the book was to learn rigorous prediction—not necessarily answering geopolitical questions that were handed from somewhere else, but more like how many editors will show up on global Wikipedia today, or possibly more profitably, how much the stock market will lose today. I was prepared for the book to be an overly-academic treatise on the minutiae of the research program, or for a number of ways it could be operationally useless.

But at each chapter, Tetlock had something very meaningful and useful to say to me about the business of prediction. At each stage he …

Review of 'Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction' on 'Goodreads'

4 stars


Forecasting might appear to be a game but in fact it is real. We are making forecasts every day, when we are buying a product at the supermarket, or when we decide to date someone or live with him. We are making forecasts when we make financial investments.

Forecasting is important. On a personal level because the ability to forecast may be the difference between success and failure. And despite the unwillingness of some decision-makers to examine and accept scientific evidence – think the case of parents who opt out of vaccinations for their children, or the lack of action to lower the level of greenhouse gases that are heating up the planet – as societies, we have started embracing evidence-based policies in order to deal better with contemporary challenges.

Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction is a fascinated book, about lots of things I didn’t know about. …

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Subjects

  • Forecasting
  • Economic forecasting