The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

English language

Published Feb. 11, 2007

ISBN:
978-1-4000-6351-2
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4 stars (44 reviews)

From the critically acclaimed author of Fooled by Randomness, a book about the impact of improbable events on every aspect of life.

29 editions

Exploration of the limits of the human mind and its confidence on

4 stars

I really liked the book. It is a very in depth dive into the limitations of the human mind when it comes to understanding and predicting rare impactful events. As these events are indeed unpredictable, it proposes putting yourself in a situation where you are prepared for so that then you don't need to predict.

I loved the most the last few chapters on the mathematical theories behind the epistemological concepts that the book explains. Maybe it's because I'm an engineer but I got it better when the author was not spitting his opinion about how stupid everyone else but him and Mandelbrot are, and he focused on the delivering the message.

In any case, I didn't dislike his style

Thought it might be my cup of tea, but it isn't

3 stars

I think I just don't like the narrative style. There's interesting things said, great concepts, but the tone, the stories, the framing with anecdotes just makes it a bit of a drag to read. I was on a pop-science reading trip, rattling through half a dozen books in a month until I crashed to a halt with Black Swan and now every time I look at it, I reach for some Scots poetry instead. This book hasn't turned me off pop-science, its just making it hard to go on.

Review of 'The Black Swan' on 'GoodReads'

4 stars

Mr. Taleb has a problem. He is not fond of randomness. Specifically, he is not fond of catastrophic, unexpected randomness. Likely, this has much to do with the destruction of his own home in Lebanon. These events that are unecpected he calls a Black Swan.

This read is a little dated in the sense that it was written in 2006. Much of the science present reflects the thinking of the period. However, Mr. Taleb succeeds in his quest to be a kind of modern day Socrates basically resisting the Gaussian tyranny and insisting on some level we know nothing. He does exceedingly well at this.

On the other hand, he seems to completely overlook those who can generate a black swan almost single-handedly. The Ultra-Rich banking people who have fueled much of Mr. Taleb's career are likely not affected by the black swans of the world the way the rest …

Review of 'The Black Swan' on 'Goodreads'

4 stars

I agree almost entirely with large portions of Taleb's work here, but I've got some broad problems with his presentation of the material. I'm sure I'll come back several times over the coming weeks to rewrite portions of this review as it won't come out quite right the first time, so please bear this in mind.

My biggest critique of the work is the poor writing style and layout of his overarching arguments. It could have stood to have a stronger editor (or any editor at all??), though my supposition is that his prior work's success has allowed him the unfortunate position to either eschew an editor or dismiss any advise dispensed by one. As a result, he writes a bit too cryptically and leaves out far too much for the audience he's trying to reach. Most won't have read as widely or as deeply as he has and he …

Review of 'The Black Swan' on 'Goodreads'

4 stars

Very glad I picked this up. It changed my perspective on randomness, the great importance of it, and how difficult it is to deal with in daily life. I'm also glad I liked the precocious style, because it makes learning way more fun. I like the many returns to ideas presented earlier as well, which help solidify my wobbly memory.

Review of 'The Black Swan' on 'Goodreads'

3 stars

Taleb's thesis is that by constructing stories when writing history, we ascribe a causality that simply isn't justified by events. Random events happen. After the fact, historians provide post-hoc reasons for those random events, making them seem as though they could have been predicted at the time. Taleb argues that this habit badly distorts our view of reality, making us blind to the probability - and more importantly, the impact - of random events.

Taleb is simultaneously thought-provoking and infuriatingly smug. He prides himself on his non-academic background, yet consistently appeals to the same classical and enlightenment authorities (well, apart from Fat Tony) as academics do.

What sets this book apart is the author's style, tone and approach. He doesn't construct his arguments case by case - it's more of a dialectic (which is a way to discuss processes and complex systems in flux) with diversions along the way into …

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